Overly Positive

Pretty easy to guess, from the really cute picture, who are the players and who are the developers, right? Hint: we’re the ones that can pounce on things and like shinies.

With information a bit sparse on the Star Wars: The Old Republic MMO lately, the community has taken to all forms of speculation as to what will be revealed next about the game, what’s to come, and of course, a little bit of thought about when exactly the TOR release date is going to be coming around. The way I see it, there are three sort of distinct divisions running around at the moment:

• The 2009 crowd would get a cuppycake from me for being even more positive and optimistic than I am about TOR’s release date. A few brave souls hold out hope that Christmas will bring them a little Star Wars: The Old Republic to be messing around with.
• 2010 is the high average in the bell curve of TOR release date speculators. There was already a site that claimed it was going to come out next October, but that has similarly been debunked by the developers as just a wild guess. Most people falling into this category have probably been through a beta or three.
• 2011 is something that only a few folks would want to even think about, because the totality of having that enter one’s mind means that the SW:TOR release date is 2 years out. Following a game for 2 years, or more? That’s a huge endeavor and a long time to remain positive about the game’s prospects.

There are all at least one or two points that support any of the three ideas for when TOR is going to be unleashed to the gaming public, but my support is thrown behind 2011 as the possible TOR release date. While that too, is wild speculation on my part, consider the fact that BioWare is currently in a state where very little gameplay footage has been shown, the first 8 levels are the ones that have been released to the public in some way, and that not all of the 8 classes are known to us. We should also consider the fact that as much as I love the gaming community, especially the MMO-playing portion of it, that premature releases and a scrutinizing public are going to make any developer cautious about their pacing.

If you want a totally guessed-at, not defintive, totally unconfirmed idea of the timeline to the TOR release date, here’s some logic (amazing, right) that leads me to believe TOR is way, way in the future of MMO releases:

• We have 4 classes currently revealed. Even at the rate of one class reveal a month, we’re looking at all classes to be revealed by the end of January 2010. While the pacing can certainly pick up (and community guy Sean Dahlberg has already made mention of that already), I think Bioware is going to remain cautious and careful about what the show to the public.
• Three months of gameplay reveals and information, along with the marketing cycle for hyping up closed beta, seems reasonable to build interest in the game and bring impatient people back for more participation. If we find out more about leveling, combat, and the story mechanics, and are on the hype train to closed beta opening, that puts us at April 2010, just before the summer convention season and when the most testers can be available.
• Any closed beta I know of proceeds in phases, where players bash the hell out of the current build of the game, in focused tests or in general content vetting, and developers change it based upon that feedback. This is an iterative process, and many companies vary their beta time depending on what they need to change prior to release. For perspective, the last three betas I was in for an MMO lasted an average of of 14 months. Let’s say Phase 1 is the big reveal, general feedback period for closed beta testers and beta leak watchers. That’s July 2010 when all is said and done.
• Phase 2 of TOR closed beta is a pass based on player feedback, with some focused areas for testers to observe as they get back into things. Assuming another three month period, that puts us at October 2010.
• Phase 3 reveals some areas of the game that have to be revamped or tested in laser-like focus tests. Whether it’s class balance, or the story pacing, or the combat, something is not going to go as planned and it will need some iterative love. We get to beyond the holidays and into January 2011.
• Marketing will be picking up the pace as the release date will be long since known (and perhaps been pushed back a couple times). In closed beta, the last phase will put the game into a state where it can be tested again on an overall basis to go through the entirety of the game experience to squash major bugs and issues. We arrive at the end of closed beta at around April 2011.
• Hype to open beta will be in full swing, touting a summer date that will snag all the students and the folks that have seasonal jobs. With shorter periods for open beta these days, we’ll probably be seeing May 2011 for the inevitable stress test, involving queues, crashing, and last-minute scrambling to adjust for player demand.
• Release happens in the midst of summer, June 2011. This assumes there will be no “oh shit” factor that pushes back development of the game – in which case my entire timeline is messed up and you can see about hotspots in early fall or at the holidays of 2011 for your SW:TOR fix.

All of this totally non-definitive information about the TOR release date says that we’re looking at a turtle crossing the finish line and not a hare. But just like the story reveals, haste makes total waste, especially when it comes to MMOs. When you understand the full scope of what it means to wait for years for a game that you are anticipating to come out, many people are simply not going to be able to put up with keeping vigil on the game. The few obsessed, crazy, idealistic fans like myself will be the markers that people will check back on to see how close we are to the SW:TOR release date.

Frankly, I’m fine and dandy with Bioware and their turtle’s pace to development. If MMOs in recent times have been burned for anything, it’s coming out too soon and having problems that they must play catch up in order to rectify properly. It might not make sense to EA investors, but the long-term strategy of an MMO release is a lot easier to execute with more time. Two years from now, will we be seeing Star Wars: The Old Republic come out on a release date that has been a long time coming? Maybe, and maybe not. But I do know that if I can, I’ll still be posting positive, sunny things about it, and everything else. At least you have a constant, right?